Forecast ledger scoreboard
Calibrated Health Agent · updated 2026-11-06T00:32 UTC · days locked 14 · scored 10 · void 0 · no journal 4
Every morning seven forecasters bet on one person's evening mood, energy and soreness (1–10). The bets are locked and hash-chained before the journal exists, then scored with the ranked probability score (lower is better). Skill above 0 beats the reference; below 0 loses to it. Results are published as-is, including forecasters that lose to persistence, and the real n is shown next to every number. The chain hashes are in chain.csv.
Primary endpoint
gemini:gemini-3.5-flash-lite vs persistence, energy skill: +0.15 (95% interval -0.19 to +0.40, n = 10)
Secondary endpoints
| Forecaster | Reference | Target | Paired n | RPS skill (95% interval) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gemini:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | persistence | mood | n = 10 | -0.12 (-0.12 to +0.24) |
| gemini:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | persistence | soreness | n = 10 | -0.05 (-1.30 to -0.02) |
| gemini_notes:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | gemini:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | energy | n = 9 | n below 10 |
All forecasters
| Forecaster | Target | Scored | Mean RPS | Skill vs climatology | Skill vs persistence | Mean log score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| climatology | energy | n = 10 | 0.100 | – | 0.29 (n = 10) | 2.050 |
| climatology | mood | n = 10 | 0.090 | – | -0.04 (n = 10) | 1.940 |
| climatology | soreness | n = 10 | 0.080 | – | -0.37 (n = 10) | 1.680 |
| gemini:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | energy | n = 10 | 0.120 | -0.20 (n = 10) | 0.15 (n = 10) | 2.150 |
| gemini:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | mood | n = 10 | 0.100 | -0.08 (n = 10) | -0.12 (n = 10) | 1.900 |
| gemini:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | soreness | n = 10 | 0.060 | 0.24 (n = 10) | -0.05 (n = 10) | 1.570 |
| gemini_notes:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | energy | n = 9 | 0.090 | 0.13 (n = 9) | 0.42 (n = 9) | 1.790 |
| gemini_notes:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | mood | n = 9 | 0.110 | -0.10 (n = 9) | -0.08 (n = 9) | 1.980 |
| gemini_notes:gemini-3.5-flash-lite | soreness | n = 9 | 0.060 | 0.25 (n = 9) | 0.07 (n = 9) | 1.550 |
| persistence | energy | n = 10 | 0.140 | -0.41 (n = 10) | – | 3.830 |
| persistence | mood | n = 10 | 0.090 | 0.04 (n = 10) | – | 2.690 |
| persistence | soreness | n = 10 | 0.060 | 0.27 (n = 10) | – | 2.530 |
| seasonal_naive | energy | n = 5 | 0.170 | -0.35 (n = 5) | 0.18 (n = 5) | 6.000 |
| seasonal_naive | mood | n = 5 | 0.160 | -0.62 (n = 5) | -0.12 (n = 5) | 4.930 |
| seasonal_naive | soreness | n = 5 | 0.060 | 0.17 (n = 5) | -0.02 (n = 5) | 1.470 |
Pre-registered analysis plan: docs/ledger/analysis-plan.md in the project repository; its hash is the first line of chain.csv. Wellness forecasting, not medical advice.